The real wisdom here isn't about humility or modesty—it's a recognition that avoiding predictable errors compounds over decades far more reliably than occasional brilliance does. Most people chase the spectacular insight or the perfect move, but Munger is describing something quieter: the sustained discipline of asking "What could go wrong with this?" before committing. A doctor who meticulously checks for contraindications in every prescription will outperform a brilliant diagnostician prone to careless oversights, not because medicine rewards caution, but because small mistakes repeated across a career become catastrophic.